We have just published an entry on the Journal Object Technology blog summarizing our results (and opinion) on the correlation between popularity of open source projects and their ability to attract new contributors and in general, their “success”.
The post is based on a quantitative analysis considering all the GitHub projects created in the last two and a half years (at the date of starting the analysis). As metric for project success we chose the number of commits (not necessarily adding code, also removing it). We believe this reflects better than other metrics the fact that the project is alive and improving.
You can read the complete post here.
Featured image cropped from an original picture by James Cridland